洛克菲勒的好运气数学原理
<img src="https://p3-tt.byteimg.com/large/pgc-image/RBBi8wAGX4ZEaF" img_width="1080" img_height="751" alt="好运气的数学原理" inline="0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; border-style: none; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin: 10px auto; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">洛克菲勒在一封给儿子的信中写道：</p><blockquote style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 12px 10px; position: relative; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); background-color: rgb(244, 245, 246); border: 1px solid rgb(232, 232, 232); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">在凡夫俗子眼里，运气永远是与生俱来的。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">他们一旦在某一领域取得成功，</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">就会用轻蔑的口气说：“这个人的运气真好，是好运帮了他！”</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">这种人永远不能窥见一个让自己赖以成功的伟大真理：</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">每个人都是他自己命运的设计师和建筑师。</p></blockquote><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">在洛克菲勒看来，运气可以策划，每个人都可以是自己命运的设计师。今天的文章将会从数学的角度，试图帮助大家解读不可言说的运气~希望能够给大家带来启发。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">作者 | 老喻在加</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">来源丨孤独大脑（ID：lonelybrain)</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">运气是靠设计</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">还是设计的残余物质？</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">运气可以设计吗？</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">众所周知，运气的特点就是不确定性，无法预测，难以把握。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">如果运气可以设计，那还叫运气吗？</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">但有个人说可以。他在给儿子的信中说：</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">运气靠策划。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">在那封信的开始，他提及了老麦考密克先生，说该人长着一颗能制造运气的脑袋，知道如何将收割机变成收割钞票的镰刀，他用收割机解放了美国农民，同时也把自己送入全美最富有者的行列。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">老麦考密克先生说过一句深奥的名言：“运气是设计的残余物质。”</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">这句话听起来的确让人颇费脑筋，<strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">它是指运气是策划和策略的结果，还是指运气是策划之后剩余的东西呢？</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">我的经验告诉我，这两种意义都存在，换句话说，我们创造自己的运气，我们任何行动都不可能把运气完全消除，运气是策划过程中难以摆脱的福音。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">写信的人是约翰·戴维森·洛克菲勒<strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">，</strong>1870年创立标准石油，1914年巅峰时，其财富总值达到美国GDP的2.4%(9亿美元，美国GDP365亿美元)，折合今日值4000亿美元以上，被视为西方世界史上首富。</p><img src="https://p1-tt.byteimg.com/origin/pgc-image/RAzP7EuH7kokBR" img_width="702" img_height="1039" alt="好运气的数学原理" inline="0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; border-style: none; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin: 10px auto; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">神秘的运气</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">不可言说</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">特别幸运的人，和特别不幸的人，都显得很相信命运。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">运气好的人，在发表获胜感言的时候，都是先赞美运气。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">例如美团的王兴在公司上市时，感谢乔布斯开创的智能手机时代，盖茨总是强调我们很幸运，出生在人类有史以来最好的时代；巴菲特则说自己中了子宫彩票。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">运气不好的人，哀叹自己喝杯水都塞牙缝，感觉全世界都和自己对着干，身边每个人都是敌人派来的，好运气来到手边都不相信是真的，拿到手上都要往地上摔一下加以验证：你看，我说的吧，假的运气！</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">运气是如此重要，人们对运气如此迷恋，运气又是那么不可言说。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">我们看到的运气方面的解释，要么陷入社会学的陈词滥调，要么陷入用数学和物理来为伪科学胡说八道。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">由此倒是催生了庞大的“运气产业”。包括：风水、星相、（某些）心理学、成功学，旺夫班。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">还有很多人，自己本来就是运气的“偶然样本”，作为“幸存者偏差”，到处去传播“偏见”。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">以此开篇冒着巨大的风险，一方面我表现出雄心壮志，另一方面如果我以下的思考“不甚了了”，你不妨把本文也扔进上面的筐里。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">一碗鸡汤</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">幸运的配方</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Dr. Richard Wiseman写过一本叫《幸运的配方》的书，来分析幸运和超能力到底有没有关系。我从不相信超能力，作者既然觉得这个还值得讨论，他给出的配方也是比较鸡汤、但尚可入口的：</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">配方一：运气好的人会创造、注意机会，并在好运来临时采行动。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">作者提及三种性格：</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">a、外向。更多朋友，更多机会；</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">b、情绪紧张。Wiseman做了个实验，约轻松型和焦虑型的人去咖啡馆访谈，结果轻松的人更容易发现故意放在地上的钞票；</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">c、开放度。别局限自己，不限制自己，就会发现更多机会。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">配方二：靠直觉和第六感作出“成功”的决定。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">这一点不赞成不反对不评论。但是作者举的某个例子还可以，说是遭遇过烂人的女性们，起初大多有不太好的感觉，但又说服自己是不是想太多了，结果就是不好。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">这是不是“事后归因”姑且不说，但别把感觉不爽的人纳入“核心圈”，这个我也深有同感。但是按照配方一，你又要有“开放度”，这咋办呀？</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">鸡汤从来不对自相矛盾负责。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">配方三：就是相信自己有好运，心安理得地期待着。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">相信自己有好运的人，容易相信别人是好人，就容易遇到好人，或者唤醒别人潜意识里的“好人”，对他表现得比较好；</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">认为自己倒霉的人，对身边的人充满了怀疑，令人厌倦，结果终至“一语成谶”。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">此乃“皮格马利翁效应”。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">配方四：将厄运转为好运。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">丢了十块钱，安慰自己幸好丢的不是一百块。将好事或者坏事视为机会的“触发点”。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">成功与运气</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">随机和范恩</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">在另外一本更加高大上的《成功与运气》一书中，罗伯特·弗兰克总结了运气的三条规律：</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">规律一，运气是可以放大的。</strong></p><blockquote style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 12px 10px; position: relative; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); background-color: rgb(244, 245, 246); border: 1px solid rgb(232, 232, 232); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">越是人生早期的关键节点，运气的放大作用越明显。加拿大青少年冰球运动员选拔系统在每年 12月 31日这天给年龄划线， 1月出生的球员就比 12月出生的更有可能获得那份年薪 3100万美元的职业合同。</p></blockquote><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">这个原理反过来，也正在摧残着中国的孩子和家长们。为了赢在起跑线上，升入名校，人们不断向前“偷跑”。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">结果，大家就像站着看电影，所有的人都踮起脚来看，都累，都占不到便宜，运气的放大，也就无从谈起了。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">规律二，运气是可以累加的。</strong></p><blockquote style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 12px 10px; position: relative; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); background-color: rgb(244, 245, 246); border: 1px solid rgb(232, 232, 232); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">比尔·盖茨当然有天赋也有努力，可是他如果不是正好出生在个人电脑第一波浪潮时代，正好进入全美唯一一所允许学生无限制访问具有“及时反馈”功能的计算机终端的私立学校，以及后面的一系列“正好”，个人电脑的主宰公司就不会叫“微软”。</p></blockquote><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">这个话题正好呼应了乔布斯那个著名的演讲，你要主动地将人生的某些事情串起来，就像你怎么知道你的手机上好看的字体，来自一个嬉皮士大学生的一门字体设计旁听课。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">规律三，竞争越激烈，运气越重要。</strong></p><blockquote style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 12px 10px; position: relative; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); background-color: rgb(244, 245, 246); border: 1px solid rgb(232, 232, 232); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">我们今天面对的市场是一个赢家通吃的市场。水平相当的两个人，运气上的差距若为 5%，收入上的差距可能高达 500%；同一类型的两个产品，性价比上的差距若为 5%，则可能直接导致差的那种被淘汰。</p></blockquote><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">该书核心主题是，</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">那些看似微小的随机事件对我们生活的影响，远远超出了大多数人的想象。</p><blockquote style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 12px 10px; position: relative; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); background-color: rgb(244, 245, 246); border: 1px solid rgb(232, 232, 232); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">研究结果显示，感恩能带来很多好处。它会让人们更快乐，更健康，拥有更好的人际关系，进而收获更多的尊重。</p></blockquote><img src="https://p3-tt.byteimg.com/large/pgc-image/RBBi8zC5BROWrj" img_width="62" img_height="59" alt="好运气的数学原理" inline="0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; border-style: none; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin: 10px auto; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">长按图片保存可分享至朋友圈</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">双罐模型</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">实力与运气的计算</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">《成功与运气》一书，给出了运气的测算方法：双罐模型。</p><blockquote style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 12px 10px; position: relative; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); background-color: rgb(244, 245, 246); border: 1px solid rgb(232, 232, 232); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">假设你有两个罐子，里面装满了小球，每个小球都有数字标号。一个罐子中的小球代表实力，另一个罐子中的代表运气，球上的数字越大越好。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">然后你从两个罐子中分别取出一个球，将球上的数字相加。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">下图显示的是，两个小球之和正好呈钟形曲线分布。这个模型能有助于我们更好地理解事件的本质。</p></blockquote><img src="https://p3-tt.byteimg.com/large/pgc-image/1532822281576a41cc5fe1a" img_width="1080" img_height="465" alt="好运气的数学原理" inline="0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; border-style: none; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin: 10px auto; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">赢家通常都是因为两个罐子里的球都是最大数字。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">葛拉威尔说，无数的成功故事告诉我们“人群中的异类之所以能够到达成功的金字塔，靠的不仅仅是实力，更是机遇和完全随机的有利条件”。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">这正是双罐模型所揭示的道理。两个罐子里都是最大数。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">当游戏被不断重复，运气那部分会逐渐稳定下来。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">这只是一个简单化的模型。两个罐子并非是对称的。比如看看是不是有回归现象，回归越明显，说明运气作用更大。保尔森的业绩回归，说明投资领域“运气”很重要。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">以上5节，都是从偏文的角度来谈“运气”，下面试一下偏理。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">我们顺着双罐模型，往数学里稍微走远一点儿，里面还有一点点儿力学的东西。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">概率模型</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">运气降临+你的反馈</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">运气的最大特点，是不确定性。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">而概率模型是对不确定现象的数学描述。维基百科中这样描述概率：</p><blockquote style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 12px 10px; position: relative; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); background-color: rgb(244, 245, 246); border: 1px solid rgb(232, 232, 232); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">概率，旧称几率，又称机率、机会率或或然率，是数学概率论的基本概念，是一个在0到1之间的实数，是对随机事件发生之可能性的度量。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">概率常用来量化对于某些不确定命题的想法，命题一般会是以下的形式：“某个特定事件会发生吗？”，对应的想法则是：“我们可以多确定这个事件会发生？”。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">确定的程度可以用0到1之间的数值来表示，这个数值就是概率。因此若事件发生的概率越高，表示我们越认为这个事件可能发生。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">概率论也可以描述复杂系统中的内在机制及规律性。</p></blockquote><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">如前所述，运气本质上等于<strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">“运气降临+你的反馈”</strong>。</p><ul style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 20px 30px; list-style: square outside; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><li style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: inherit;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">运气是不确定性的，与概率相关；</p></li><li style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: inherit;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">而你的反馈，也是在条件不充分的情况下作出的，所以，几乎每一个你有意识地作出的决定都与概率相关。</p></li></ul><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">概率好玩儿的地方是，一方面它是如此强大，另一方面是我们只需了解最基本的两个基本概念，就足以应付这个现实世界了。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">先来点儿概率常识：</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">第一个基本概念：相互排斥事件</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">如果两个事件不可能同时发生，则这两个事件就是排斥事件。</p><img src="https://p1-tt.byteimg.com/origin/pgc-image/RAzP7FEEYiA3dZ" img_width="1080" img_height="751" alt="好运气的数学原理" inline="0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; border-style: none; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin: 10px auto; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">例如上图的转盘游戏，指针落在红色或者紫色上，这两件事就是排斥的，你转动一次，不可能同时落在两种颜色上（不考虑临界点）。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">如果事件A和B是排斥的，那么“事件A或B发生”的概率就是A发生概率和B发生的概率相加。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">在上图中，落在红色上的概率是1/5，落在紫色上的概率是1/5，所以落在红色或者紫色上的概率就是2/5。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">第二个基本概念：相互独立事件</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">相互独立事件: 事件A（或B）是否发生对事件B（A）发生的概率没有影响，这样的两个事件叫做相互独立事件。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">严格来说，如果两个事件A和B同时发生的概率等于A发生的概率和B发生的概率的乘积，则这两个事件是独立事件。</p><img src="https://p1-tt.byteimg.com/origin/pgc-image/RAzP7GSE2TjDjm" img_width="1080" img_height="1119" alt="好运气的数学原理" inline="0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; border-style: none; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin: 10px auto; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">如上图，常见的扔骰子游戏：如果你连续扔两次骰子，你有多大概率连续得到两个六？</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">上面的解答，是我从加拿大这边的一本中学数学辅导书里拿来的。这是一种“穷尽法”，也就是说，把所有可能发生的情况全部罗列出来，既直观又清晰，有利于我们理解概念的本质，如果仅仅记一下公式，其实毫无意义。</p><ul style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 20px 30px; list-style: square outside; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><li style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: inherit;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">我们看到，绿色是指第一次扔骰子时，会有六种可能性。那么，对应第一次的每一种可能性，第二次扔骰子又分别有六次可能性，即蓝色的部分。</p></li><li style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: inherit;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">算下来，一共有36种可能性，两个全是6的可能性是1次，所以是1/36。</p></li><li style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: inherit;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">用公式来表达，就是1/6*1/6=1/36。</p></li></ul><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">有人可能会说，天哪，你是在帮我复习中学数学吗？</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">事实情况是，就是这么简单的两个基本概念，现实生活中能够弄明白的，也许只有1/1000；能够以此作为决策依据的，更是万里挑一。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">控制运气的运气</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">从执行层到配置层</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">拉普拉斯说：<strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">概率是用计算概括的常识</strong>。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">让我们回到我在《混合算法》里提及的案例：</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">泰德•威廉姆斯在他的《击球的科学》一书中这样描述道：对于一个攻击手来说最重要的事情就是等待最佳时机的出现。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">巴菲特认为这句话准确道出了他投资的哲学，等待最佳时机，等待最划算的生意，它一定会出现，这对投资来说很关键。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">泰德•威廉姆斯是过去70年来唯一一个单个赛季打出400次安打的棒球运动员。他的技巧如下：</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">第一步：把击打区划分为77个棒球那么大的格子。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">第二步：给格子打分。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">第三步：只有当球落在他的最佳“格子”时，他才会挥棒，即使他有可能因此而三振出局，因为挥棒去打那些“最差”格子会大大降低他的成功率。</p><img src="https://p3-tt.byteimg.com/large/pgc-image/R8qnZ2d7xI6rB6" img_width="587" img_height="707" alt="好运气的数学原理" inline="0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; border-style: none; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin: 10px auto; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">如上图，泰德•威廉姆斯的秘密在于，将自己的“概率世界”变成了两层。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">一层是执行层：也就是他击球这个层面。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">在这个层面，无论他多么有天赋，多么苦练，他的击球成功概率达到一定数值之后，就基本稳定下来了，再想提升一点点，都要付出巨大的努力。而且还要面临新人的不断挑战。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">一层是配置层：也就是他做选择的这个层面。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">他在配置什么呢？</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">挥棒击球的决心。</strong></p><img src="https://p1-tt.byteimg.com/origin/pgc-image/RAzP80X1zeVnqY" img_width="982" img_height="904" alt="好运气的数学原理" inline="0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; border-style: none; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin: 10px auto; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">让我们继续用概率模型来分析。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">如上图：</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">a、“试验”可以视为对手，他是所有飞来的球的“发生器”；</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">b、“样本空间”里，包含了所有飞来的球，事件A就是球A，事件B就是球B；</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">c、“概率律”，在这个特定的隐喻里，我们是指A类球飞来的时候，假如泰德•威廉姆斯挥棒的话，他的成功率。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">（请注意，这里面有两个需要用概率来描述的指标，一个是飞来的球，一个是击球成功率，在此我简化了。）</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">如上图，假如所有的球只有A和B两种，A的成功概率较低，B的成功概率较高。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">所以，在“样本空间”这个环节，我们可以对事件进行筛选：</p><ul style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 20px 30px; list-style: square outside; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><li style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: inherit;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">当事件A发生时，我们什么都不做；</p></li><li style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: inherit;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">当事件B发生时，我们全神贯注地挥棒击球。</p></li></ul><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">我们悄悄地将此前的双罐模型，变成了双层模型：</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">我们把原来的“运气罐子”，变成了配置层。“实力罐子”，称之为“执行层”。</p><img src="https://p1-tt.byteimg.com/origin/pgc-image/RAzP80i5IsKJEQ" img_width="1080" img_height="496" alt="好运气的数学原理" inline="0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; border-style: none; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin: 10px auto; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">如此一来，我们发现，伟大的球员是由杰出的决策能力（设计自己的运气）和强大的运动实力（实现自己的运气）共同造就的。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">的确，我们并非完全被运气所操纵。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">很多时候，我们无法改变运气，但可以改变<strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">运气的运气</strong>。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">红色球蓝色球</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">对随机性的配置</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">配置层只是“对坏球说不”吗？</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">远远不是。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">为了论证这一点，我们来看一道有趣的微软面试题：</p><blockquote style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 12px 10px; position: relative; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); background-color: rgb(244, 245, 246); border: 1px solid rgb(232, 232, 232); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">有100个红色球和100个蓝色球，请你任选组合将全部球放入2个罐中。放好后随机取一个罐子，再从此罐中随机取出一个球，如果取到红球赢100元钱，问如何组合放球能最大化赢钱机会？</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">看起来拿到红球的概率只有50%，在配置层你又不能对蓝球说不，该怎么办呢？</p></blockquote><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">答案是：</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">在一个罐子里面只放一个红球，而把其它所有球全部放进另外一个。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">解题思路：</p><ul style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 20px 30px; list-style: square outside; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><li style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: inherit;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">这里面的秘密是罐子的随机性和球的随机性。每个罐子都有50%的被选可能性。</p></li><li style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: inherit;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">所以干脆令其中的一个罐子最大化，全部放红球，放一个就够了。</p></li><li style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: inherit;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">其它99个红球放去另外一个罐子，和100个蓝球“战斗”。</p></li><li style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: inherit;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">这样的话，你赚钱的概率是74.87%，远高于表面上应得的50%。</p></li></ul><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">三层模型</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">好运气的三个旋钮</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">让我们回头，将开篇所提的运气的其它因素也放进来，包括机会，开放度，人脉等等，如此一来，我们得到一个“三层模型”：</p><img src="https://p1-tt.byteimg.com/origin/pgc-image/RAzP818ATRAooO" img_width="1080" img_height="658" alt="好运气的数学原理" inline="0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; border-style: none; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin: 10px auto; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">如此以来，各路学家乱七八糟的理论和建议，就有了一个（看起来）清晰的架构了，而且，为概率分析搭建了可计算的框架。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">第三层关键词：</strong>做一个职业化的执行者，发挥个人独特优势。只要稳定在某个水准即可。例如你有52%的胜率，你稳稳地去实现即可。不管好坏，打出去，只管自己的正常发挥，以及不断提升。赢了开心，死了认命。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">以我们开篇到此半句都没说的桃花运为例吧：</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">1、资源层</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">你要多交朋友，扩大交际圈，增加样本量，保持潜在对象的多样性与丰富度。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">2、配置层</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">别见一个就All in，这哪里是相信缘分相信爱情，压根儿就是和概率对着干。在足够的样本量（不是鼓励花心哈，从普通朋友开始）基础上，作出相对理性的、尽量正确的决策。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">3、执行层</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">这时候就是你大显身手、发光放电、死缠烂打的时候了。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">有了这个框架，你会发现，桃花运的难题，90%出现在“三层模型”的战略层面，而非“击球”的技术环节。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">例如：</p><ul style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 20px 30px; list-style: square outside; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><li style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: inherit;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">圈子太小，样本量匮乏；</p></li><li style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: inherit;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">混淆资源层和配置层，爱一次伤一次；</p></li><li style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; list-style: inherit;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">该出手时含蓄扭捏。</p></li></ul><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">简而言之，运气由三层构建，好运气取决于三个旋钮。最终结果决定于三层的整体完成度，而不是某一层的强大。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">但是三层模型又不是一个简单的叠加的、递进的关系，它还有<strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">系统动力学的反馈、自我强化</strong>等特点。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">例如执行层较强，可以带来更多资源。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">以上三层，又都在一个巨大的运气之船上。因为我们在每一层的计算，都难免有些主观，有所偏差。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">设计运气</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">设计人生</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></p><h1 style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 24px; margin: 36px 0px 22px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700; line-height: 32px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">回到开始的那封信。</h1><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></p><h1 style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 24px; margin: 36px 0px 22px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700; line-height: 32px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">洛克菲勒给儿子写道：</h1><blockquote style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 12px 10px; position: relative; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); background-color: rgb(244, 245, 246); border: 1px solid rgb(232, 232, 232); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><h1 style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 24px; margin: 36px 0px 22px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700; line-height: 32px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34);">在我们这个世界上，很难找到像麦考密克先生那样善于策划运气的人，也很难找到不相信运气的人，和不误解运气的人。</h1><h1 style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 24px; margin: 36px 0px 22px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700; line-height: 32px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34);">在凡夫俗子眼里，运气永远是与生俱来的，只要发现有人在职务上得升迁、在商海中势如破竹，或在某一领域取得成功，他们就会很随便、甚至用轻蔑的口气说：“这个人的运气真好，是好运帮了他！”这种人永远不能窥见一个让自己赖以成功的伟大真理：</h1><h1 style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 24px; margin: 36px 0px 22px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700; line-height: 32px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">每个人都是他自己命运的设计师和建筑师。</strong></h1></blockquote><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></p><h1 style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 24px; margin: 36px 0px 22px; padding: 0px; font-weight: 700; line-height: 32px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">洛克菲勒用自己的亲身经历来阐释他的“伟大真理”：对石油产业的整合，以及最终实现垄断。</h1><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">背景：</strong>炼油商们各自为战，绝大多数都亏本。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">机会：</strong>驯服这个行业，让大家理性行事。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">计划：</strong>将大本营科利佛兰作为发动统治石油工业战争的第一战场，待征服在那里的二十几家竞争对手之后，再迅速行动，开辟第二战场，直至将那些对手全部征服，建立石油业和新秩序。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">难题：</strong>没钱。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">解决：</strong>组建股份公司，把行业外的投资者拉进来。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">开局：</strong>企业就如战场，战略目标的意义就是要造成对己方最有利的状态。出于战略上考虑，选择的第一个征服目标不是不堪一击的小公司，而是最强劲的对手克拉克-佩恩公司。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">进攻：</strong>接下来，二十二家竞争对手归于标准石油公司的麾下。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">结局：</strong>在此后三年时间里，连续征服了费城、匹兹堡、巴尔的摩的炼油商，成为了全美炼油业的惟一主人。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">如何策划运气呢？</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">洛克菲勒就认为，在构思好的设计时，要首先考虑两个基本的先决条件：</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">第一个条件：</strong>知道自己的目标，譬如你要做什么，甚至你要成为什么样的人；</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">第二个条件：</strong>知道自己拥有什么资源，譬如地位、金钱、人际关系，乃至能力。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">这个案例好玩儿的地方在于，一场资源领域的商战，最后起到决定性作用的，竟然不是资源本身的优势。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">回到我们的“三层理论”框架，洛克菲勒在“资源层”没有领先对手的地方，在“专业层”也谈不上有什么“别人赚不到钱但我能”的独到之处。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">他唯一有优势的是第二层。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">洛克菲勒如此揭示他的秘密：</p><blockquote style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 12px 10px; position: relative; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); background-color: rgb(244, 245, 246); border: 1px solid rgb(232, 232, 232); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">你可能先有一个构想、一个目标，才开始寻找适于这些资源的目标。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">还可以把它们混合一处，形成第三和第四种方法，例如拥有某种目标和某种资源，为实现目标，你必须选择性地创造一些资源，也可能拥有一些资源和某个目标，你必须根据这些资源，提高或降低目标。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">你根据资源调整目标或根据目标调整资源之后，就有了一个基础——可以据以构思设计的结构，剩下的东西就是用手段与时间去填充，和等待运气的来临了。</p></blockquote><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">在洛克菲勒看来：</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">设计运气，就是设计人生。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">最后</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">洛克菲勒给我们四点启示：</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">1、大多数石油商只是把自己当作一个球手，而他着眼全局。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">他能从更高维度去洞察整个行业，发现机会，并从“资源层”和“配置层”发力，最终令“执行层”（炼油业务）本身能够赚钱。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">2、即使是资源行业，核心优势也不是靠资源本身。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">地产行业看起来也主要靠土地，但是中国领先的几家开发商，起初都没什么土地资源优势。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">丝绸之路，远比丝绸更有价值。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">互联网行业更不消说了。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">所以，别用“没资源”当作运气不好的借口。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">3、只有数字作数。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">洛克菲勒遵循母亲的教导，勤快、节俭、朴实，幼年的他已开始以帮父母做家事，卖马铃薯，火鸡，甚至贷款给邻居收息等方法赚钱。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">学生时代，他喜欢并擅长于算术，但别科成绩平平。他并不属于才华洋溢耀眼型的人物，但永远严格系统化，理性不带感情地处理问题。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">设计运气，就是对不确定性的计算，越难以计算，该其计算也越有价值。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">4、为运气感恩。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">谈及慈善，巴菲特和盖茨都是洛克菲勒的追随者。洛克菲勒回报地球的善举不胜枚举，其中最大的海外项目是中国的协和医院，累计捐助数额达4465万美元，相当于今天的近10亿美元。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">鲜为人知的是，周口店“北京人”的挖掘和考古工作，洛克菲勒基金会从一开始就参与其中。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">洛克菲勒在86岁时，写下一首短诗总结自己的一生：</p><blockquote style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 1em 0px; padding: 12px 10px; position: relative; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); background-color: rgb(244, 245, 246); border: 1px solid rgb(232, 232, 232); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">我从小就被教导既要娱乐也要工作，</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">我的人生就是一个悠长，愉快的假期；</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">全力工作，尽情玩乐，</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">我在旅途上放下了一切忧愁，</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">而上帝每天都善待着我。</p></blockquote>
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