2019年，除了看懂小趋势，这8个慢变量也要注意了
<p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">全球经济迎来新格局，中国经济进入新时代，我们的思考也需要新的思维。何帆教授的这本书从国内的新周期之辩出发，系统阐述了内外经济环境变化的逻辑和趋势，不管是对未来企业的转型升级，还是对个人的资产配置，都有重要价值和意义。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">——管清友</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">题记</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">以下是何帆提出的不可不察的八个“慢变量”。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">01</p><img src="https://p1-tt.byteimg.com/origin/pgc-image/RAHb600FscX300" img_width="1080" img_height="718" alt="2019年，除了看懂小趋势，这8个慢变量也要注意了丨21读书" inline="0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; border-style: none; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin: 10px auto; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">第一个“慢变量”是中国的经济规模或将成为全球第一。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">多个机构的预测结果显示，大约在2020 年，中国会超过美国，成为全球规模最大的经济体。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">这或许不能说明什么问题，毕竟中国的人均 GDP还远低于美国。但是，在2010 年第二季度，中国经济规模超过日本，到第三季度就发生了“钓鱼岛事件”。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">02</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">第二个“慢变量”是中国将进入老龄化社会的深水区。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">按照联合国的标准，当一个国家或地区60 岁以上老年人口占人口总数的 10%，或65 岁以上老年人口占人口总数的7%，就意味着这个国家或地区处于老龄化社会。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">根据《中国老龄社会与养老保障发展 报告(2014)》的预测，到2020 年，中国60 岁以上的老年人口将达到 2.48 亿人，老龄化水平将达到17.17%，其中，80 岁及以上老年人口将达到3 067 万人，占老年人口的12.37%。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">也就是说，中国将在这五年内进入超级老龄化社会。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">虽然放开了计划生育政策，但是“远水解不了近渴”。老龄化社会并不仅仅意味着成人尿布的产量将超过婴儿尿布的产量，而且意味着养老、医疗、社保、交通等问题，都会在五年内显现。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">03</p><img src="https://p1-tt.byteimg.com/origin/pgc-image/RELMoXlCHAU3s2" img_width="800" img_height="450" alt="2019年，除了看懂小趋势，这8个慢变量也要注意了丨21读书" inline="0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; border-style: none; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin: 10px auto; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">第三个“慢变量”是性别失衡加剧。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">根据国家卫计委的数据， 过去 30 年里，我国新生婴儿中男孩比女孩累计多出约3 000 万。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">如果按照平均每年多出生100 万来估算，那么在1980—2000 年的20 年间，出生的男孩大约比女孩多2 000 万。到了2020 年，即便是 2000 年出生的男孩也快到了适婚年龄。<strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">这就意味着大概有2 000 万个男性找不到结婚对象。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">这2 000 万未婚男性都是谁呢？</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">他们中的很多将是没有工作、没有房子，到头来又没有老婆的绝望的单身汉——由此又将引发怎样的社会问题？</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">04</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">第四个“慢变量”是农民工子女的教育问题。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">根据教育部发布 的《2014 年全国教育事业发展统计公报》数据，2014 年，农民工子女随父母进城参加义务教育的有1 294.73 万人，其中在初中就读 的有 339.14 万人；留在农村上学的有 2 075.42 万人，其中在初中就读的有 665.89 万人。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">由北京大学、香港大学等机构联合进行的研究表明，农民工子女中大概只有6%左右的孩子会有机会接受高等教育，而其余大部分都会直接进入社会参加工作。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">也就是说，大约有 1 000 万在读初中的农民工子女，到2020 年就会进入劳动力市场。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">这些孩子中的大部分既“不认识农村”，又“不属于城市”，到时候受到冲击的恐怕不只是劳动力市场。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">05</p><img src="https://p1-tt.byteimg.com/origin/pgc-image/REvjO4qFrbWow0" img_width="1034" img_height="820" alt="2019年，除了看懂小趋势，这8个慢变量也要注意了丨21读书" inline="0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; border-style: none; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin: 10px auto; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">第五个“慢变量”是“白领”或将成为“灰领”。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">1994—2011 年，我国研究生招生总规模累计达到350 万。按照3 年学制推算， 2014 年我国拥有硕士以上学历的总人数为350 万。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">那么，根据每年的招生计划外推，到2017 年，我国研究生招生总规模将达到670 万。也就是说，<strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">到2020 年，我国拥有硕士以上学历的人才数量将比现在翻一番。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">这是一件好事吗？</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">难说。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">用得好，这将是中国技术创新的巨大财富；用得不好，将出现“白领”变成“灰领”的现象。到那时，蓝翔技校的毕业生收入超过清华大学毕业生的收入，将不是什么天方夜谭。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">对此，教育投资的边际收益将大幅度递减，受过高等教育的“失败者”心态可能会进一步恶化。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">06</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">第六个“慢变量”是上层中产阶层崛起。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">麦肯锡在《下一个十年的中产阶层》中预测，到2020 年，中国中产阶层的数量将达到 6.3 亿。其中，上层中产阶层（家庭年收入在10 万元到22.9 万元之间）的占比将由2012 年的12%上升到54%。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">按照麦肯锡给出的数据测算，未来五年内，中国将涌现出2 亿左右的上层中产阶层。这部分人群有着更高的消费水平，而且可以购买来自各个国家的产品——全球市场就是为他们服务的。这些崛起的上层中产阶层会购买更多的房子和汽车，会习惯出国旅游和坐游轮，但他们也会消耗更多的能源和资源，这将影响的不仅仅是中国经济。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">07</p><img src="https://p1-tt.byteimg.com/origin/pgc-image/RD2oPpsBMfCCnp" img_width="1080" img_height="645" alt="2019年，除了看懂小趋势，这8个慢变量也要注意了丨21读书" inline="0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; border-style: none; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin: 10px auto; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">第七个“慢变量”是消费结构转型。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">未来五年里，不仅整体消费水平会发生质的变化，而且消费结构也会发生重大变革，其最主要的特点将是消费向服务业倾斜。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">中产阶层家庭该买的都买了，房子、车子、彩电、空调、冰箱……唯一能够大幅度增加的消费是来自对服务，如教育、医疗的消费。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">需求的变化又会带动产业结构的转型，继而带来就业结构和收入结构的变化——链式反应已经启动。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">08</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">第八个“慢变量”是技术创新加快。</strong></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">随着劳动力成本的增加，劳动力密集型产业可能在倒逼机制下实现新的技术突破。与此同时，中国巨大的市场潜力也有很大可能会刺激新的技术创新，最典型的例子就是高铁技术。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">正是中国巨大的需求潜力造就了如此庞大的高铁市场，高铁技术的革新和推广才得以成为可能。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 16px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei', 'WenQuanYi Micro Hei', 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 28px; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">未来5 年，环保、医疗和老龄化服务等领域都是最有可能出现这种技术大突破的领域。原因很简单——只有中国才有如此巨大的需求。</p>
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