黑天鹅-如何应对不可知的未来 The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable 美 纳西姆·尼古拉斯·

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资源信息： 中文名: 黑天鹅-如何应对不可知的未来 原名: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable 作者: (美)纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布 资源格式: PDF 版本: 英文文字版 出版社: Random House 书号: 978-1400063512 发行时间: 2007年04月17日 地区: 美国 语言: 英文 概述:

内容简介: 本书讲的是在发现澳大利亚的黑天鹅之前，欧洲人认为天鹅都是白色的，“黑天鹅”曾经是欧洲人言谈与写作中的惯用语，用来指不可能存在的事物，但这个不可动摇的信念随着第一只黑天鹅的出现而崩溃。黑天鹅的存在寓意着不可预测的重大稀有事件，它在意料之外，却又改变一切。人类总是过度相信经验，而不知道一只黑天鹅的出现就足以颠覆一切。然而，无论是在对股市的预期，还是政府的决策中，黑天鹅都是无法预测的。“9·11”事件、美国的次级贷危机、我国的雪灾，都是如此。生活中，随机性随处可见，在资本市场也是一样。人们总是以自己有限的生活经验和不堪一击的信念来解释不可预测的事件；即便是精于算计的专业人士，也难保不被随机性愚弄，其实我们应该做的是顺应这种不可知的未来。本书会教你改变自己的思维方式，把握黑天鹅带来的机会，采取应对策略，从中受益。这本书将改变我们对世界、人性和金钱的看法。 荣获：第一财经日报2008十大商业图书 获奖辞：2008年，我们恰逢5•12汶川大地震、全球金融风暴等“黑天鹅”事件。《黑天鹅》适时出版，唤醒人们走出对随机事件的无视甚至无知。 作者简介: 纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb），一生专注于研究运气、不确定性、概率和知识。他既是文学随笔家，又是经验主义者，又是理智的数理证券交易员，目前担任阿姆赫斯特马萨诸塞大学随机科学系教授。他的上一本畅销书《随机致富的傻瓜》（Fooled by Randomness）以20种语言出版。大部分时候他生活在纽约。 内容截图:

目录: Prologue xvii On the Plumage of Birds xvii What You Do Not Know xix Experts and "Empty Suits" XX Learning to Learn xxi A New Kind of Ingratitude xxii Life Is Very Unusual xxiv Plato and the Nerd XXV Too Dull to Write About xxvi The Bottom Line xxvii Chapters Map xxviii PART ONE: UMBERTO ECO'S ANTILIBRARY, OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION 1 Chapter 1 : The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic 3 Anatomy of a Black Swan 3 On Walking Walks 6 "Paradise" Evaporated 7 The Starred Night 7 History and the Triplet of Opacity 8 Nobody Knows What's Going On 9 History Does Not Crawl, It Jumps 10 x CONTENTS Dear Diary: On History Running Backward 12 Education in a Taxicab 14 Clusters 15 Where Is the Show? 17 83/4 Lbs Later 18 The Four-Letter Word of Independence 20 Limousine Philosopher 21 Chapter 2: Yevgenia's Black Swan 23 Chapter 3: The Speculator and the Prostitute 26 The Best (Worst) Advice 26 Beware the Scalable 28 The Advent of Scalability 29 Scalability and Globalization 31 Travels Inside Mediocristan 32 The Strange Country of Extremistan 33 Extremistan and Knowledge 34 Wild and Mild 35 The Tyranny of the Accident 35 Chapter 4: One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker 38 How to Learn from the Turkey 40 Trained to Be Dull 43 A Black Swan Is Relative to Knowledge 44 A Brief History of the Black Swan Problem 45 Sextus the (Alas) Empirical 46 Algazel 47 The Skeptic, Friend of Religion 48 J Don't Want to Be a Turkey 49 They Want to Live in Mediocristan 49 Chapter 5: Confirmation Shmonfirmation! 51 Zoogles Are Not All Boogies 53 Evidence 55 Negative Empiricism 56 Counting to Three 58 Saw Another Red Mini! 59 Not Everything Back to Mediocristan Chapter 6: The Narrative Fallacy On the Causes of My Rejection of Causes Splitting Brains A Little More Dopamine Andrey Nikolayevich's Rule A Better Way to Die Remembrance of Things Not Quite Past The Madman's Narrative Narrative and Therapy To Be Wrong with Infinite Precision Dispassionate Science The Sensational and the Black Swan Black Swan Blindness The Pull of the Sensational The Shortcuts Beware the Brain How to Avert the Narrative Fallacy Chapter 7: Living in the Antechamber of Hope Peer Cruelty Where the Relevant Is the Sensational Nonlinearities Process over Results Human Nature, Happiness, and Lumpy Rewards The Antechamber of Hope Inebriated by Hope The Sweet Trap of Anticipation When You Need the Bastiani Fortress El desierto de los târtaros Bleed or Blowup Chapter 8: Giacomo Casanova's Unfailing Luck: The Problem of Silent Evidence The Story of the Drowned Worshippers The Cemetery of Letters xii CONTENTS How to Become a Millionaire in Ten Steps A Health Club for Rats Vicious Bias More Hidden Applications The Evolution of the Swimmer's Body What You See and What You Don't See Doctors The Teflon-style Protection of Giacomo Casanova "I Am a Risk Taker" I Am a Black Swan: The Anthropic Bias The Cosmetic Because Chapter 9: The Ludic Fallacy, or The Uncertainty of the Nerd Fat Tony Non-Brooklyn John Lunch at Lake Como The Uncertainty of the Nerd Gambling with the Wrong Dice Wrapping Up Part One The Cosmetic Rises to the Surface Distance from Primates PART TWO: WE JUST CAN'T PREDICT From Yogi Berra to Henri Poincaré Chapter 10: The Scandal of Prediction On the Vagueness of Catherine's Lover Count Black Swan Blindness Redux Guessing and Predicting Information Is Bad for Knowledge The Expert Problem, or the Tragedy of the Empty Suit What Moves and What Does Not Move How to Have the Last Laugh Events Are Outlandish Herding Like Cattle I Was "Almost" Right Reality? What For? "Other Than That," It Was Okay C O N T E N T S xiii The Beauty of Technology: Excel Spreadsheets 158 The Character of Prediction Errors 159 Don't Cross a River if It Is (on Average) Four Feet Deep 160 Get Another Job 163 At JFK 163 Chapter 11 : How to Look for Bird Poop 165 How to Look for Bird Poop 165 Inadvertent Discoveries 166 A Solution Waiting for a Problem 169 Keep Searching 170 How to Predict Your Predictions! 171 The Nth Billiard Ball 174 Third Republic-Style Decorum 174 The Three Body Problem 176 They Still Ignore Hayek 179 How Not to Be a Nerd 181 A cademic Libertarianism 183 Prediction and Free Will 183 The Grueness of Emerald 185 That Great Anticipation Machine 189 Chapter 12: Epistemocracy, a Dream 190 Monsieur de Montaigne, Epistemocrat 191 Epistemocracy 192 The Past's Past, and the Past's Future 193 Prediction, Misprediction, and Happiness 194 Helenus and the Reverse Prophecies 195 The Melting Ice Cube 196 Once Again, Incomplete Information 197 What They Call Knowledge 198 Chapter 13: Appelles the Painter, or What Do You Do if You Cannot Predict? 201 Advice Is Cheap, Very Cheap 201 Being a Fool in the Right Places 203 Be Prepared 203 The Idea of Positive Accident 203 Volatility and Risk of Black Swan 204 xiv CONTENTS Barbell Strategy "Nobody Knows Anything" The Great Asymmetry PART THREE: THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN Chapter 14: From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and Back The World Is Unfair The Matthew Effect Lingua Franca Ideas and Contagions Nobody Is Safe in Extremistan A Brooklyn Frenchman The Long Tail Naïve Globalization Reversals Away from Extremistan Chapter 15: The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud The Gaussian and the Mandelbrotian The Increase in the Decrease The Mandelbrotian What to Remember Inequality Extremistan and the 80/20 Rule Grass and Trees How Coffee Drinking Can Be Safe Love of Certainties How to Cause Catastrophes Quételet's Average Monster Golden Mediocrity God's Error Poincaré to the Rescue Eliminating Unfair Influence "The Greeks Would Have Deified It" "Yes/No" Only Please A (Literary) Thought Experiment on Where the Bell Curve Comes From C O N T E N T S xv Those Comforting Assumptions 250 "The Ubiquity of the Gaussian" 251 Chapter 16: The Aesthetics of Randomness 253 The Poet of Randomness 253 The Platonicity of Triangles 256 The Geometry of Nature 256 Fractality 257 A Visual Approach to Extremistan/Mediocristan 259 Pearls to Swine 260 The Logic of Fractal Randomness (with a Warning) 262 The Problem of the Upper Bound 266 Beware the Precision 266 The Water Puddle Revisited 267 From Representation to Reality 268 Once Again, Beware the Forecasters 270 Once Again, a Happy Solution 270 Where Is the Gray Swan? 272 Chapter 17: Locke's Madmen, or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places 274 Only Fifty Years 275 The Clerks' Betrayal 275 Anyone Can Become President 277 More Horror 278 Confirmation 281 It Was Just a Black Swan 281 How to "Prove" Things 282 Chapter 18: The Uncertainty of the Phony 286 Ludic Fallacy Redux 286 Find the Phony 287 Can Philosophers Be Dangerous to Society? 288 The Problem of Practice 289 How Many Wittgensteins Can Dance on the Head of a Pin? 289 Where Is Popper When You Need Him? 290 The Bishop and the Analyst 291 Easier Than You Think: The Problem of Decision Under Skepticism 292 xvi CONTENTS 293 Chapter 19: Half and Half, or How to Get Even with the Black Swan 295 When Missing a Train Is Painless 297 The End 297 Epilogue: Yevgenia's White Swans 299 Acknowledgments 301 Glossary 307 Notes 311 Bibliography 331 Index 359